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DCF Valuation

DCF valuation is nothing but calculation of NPV and comparison of two or more projects, assets or companies's value. We first calculate discounted value of all cash outflow. Present value of cash outflow and discounted value of cash outflow are same because both are calculated on a specfic cut off rate. After this, we calculate discounted value of all cash inflow. It is just like to calculate present value of all cash profits from a project or any asset. If we substract present value of all cash outflow from present value of cash inflow, the surplus will be DCF. Because we calculate this DCF on the basis of time value of money, it shows net surplus of any project. If its value is more than any other project, we will choose this project.

As per wikipedia's example

    • John Doe buys a house for $100,000. Three years later, he expects to be able to sell this house for $150,000.

    Simple subtraction suggests that the value of his profit on such a transaction would be $150,000 − $100,000 = $50,000, or 50%. If that $50,000 is amortized over the three years, his implied annual return (known as the internal rate of return) would be about 14.5%. Looking at those figures, he might be justified in thinking that the purchase looked like a good idea.

    1.1453 x 100000 = 150000 approximately.

    However, since three years have passed between the purchase and the sale, any cash flow from the sale must be discounted accordingly. At the time John Doe buys the house, the 3-year US Treasury Note rate is 5% per annum. Treasury Notes are generally considered to be inherently less risky than real estate, since the value of the Note is guaranteed by the US Government and there is a liquid market for the purchase and sale of T-Notes. If he hadn't put his money into buying the house, he could have invested it in the relatively safe T-Notes instead. This 5% per annum can therefore be regarded as the risk-free interest rate for the relevant period (3 years).

    Using the DPV formula above (FV=$150,000, i=0.05, n=3), that means that the value of $150,000 received in three years actually has a present value of $129,576 (rounded off). In other words we would need to invest $129,576 in a T-Bond now to get $150,000 in 3 years almost risk free. This is a quantitative way of showing that money in the future is not as valuable as money in the present ($150,000 in 3 years isn't worth the same as $150,000 now; it is worth $129,576 now).

    Subtracting the purchase price of the house ($100,000) from the present value results in the net present value of the whole transaction, which would be $29,576 or a little more than 29% of the purchase price.Link

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Accounting Education: DCF Valuation
DCF Valuation
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